May 6, 2014 by Paul Goldsmith
So here’s the deal for this blog. There’s a general election coming up on May 7th 2015, and it is at the moment an election which it is the least predictable in living memory. There are three parties who can legitimately plan to be in government on May 8th 2015, with the Lib Dems rightly suspecting they will hold the balance of power should a coalition be required, but who will lead that government is not clear.
The fact that the economy is in recovery could be seen to look good for the Conservative party. But they are assailed from the right by the extraordinary rise of UKIP – which is likely to result in first place, or at worst second place, in the European elections on May 22nd – and Labour, whose strategy of presenting themselves as the party “on the side of ordinary people” could well result in them coming close to a majority next May.
The fact that Labour can achieve that majority with 35% of the vote but the Conservatives would need 40% of the vote to achieve the same number of seats needs to be explained, and will be. As will the possibility that UKIP could win the European elections with over 25% of the national vote, gaining about 25% of the seats, but that vote will likely drop to less than 10% in the general election next year, with the likelihood they won’t win any seats.
Over the next year I will write about what I think matters in economics and politics – with the aim of educating those who would like to understand more, and entertaining those who do understand, but would like to hear an opinion on something. I will also occasionally write about education, because it’s an area I feel extremely strongly about. If you read my about page you won’t be surprised if I occasionally talk about the business world too.
Please do feel free to follow this blog to receive emails when I post, and I would really value interaction from you as well, so do comment should what I say move you to do so.