Interesting initial statistics on voting behaviour at the 2015 General Election
Leave a commentMay 18, 2015 by Paul Goldsmith
Using Lord Ashcroft’s post-election polling and comparing with previous voting statistics gives us some interesting findings.
Summary
- Conservatives’ previously large lead amongst women has now gone
- Labour have improved their vote share amongst young people 18-24 – despite the Green vote
- This is the same with 25+, where a Conservative lead has turned into a Labour lead
- But there was a massive loss of the elderly vote for Labour, many to UKIP, and they turnout in greater numbers
- Labour’s vote share improved amongst the middle classes
- It was no worse amongst C1 and C2
- It was also much improved amongst the very poor
| 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | |||||||||||||
| CON | LAB | LD | Lab lead | CON | LAB | LD | OTH | Lab lead | CON | LAB | LD | UKIP | G | Lab lead | |
| M | 34 | 34 | 22 | 0 | 38 | 28 | 22 | -10 | 32 | 29 | 9 | 15 | 5 | -3 | |
| W | 32 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 26 | 4 | 32 | 32 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 0 | |
| 18+ | 28 | 38 | 26 | 10 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 24 | 41 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| 25+ | 25 | 38 | 27 | 13 | 35 | 30 | 29 | 7 | -4 | 26 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| 35+ | 27 | 41 | 23 | 14 | 34 | 31 | 26 | 9 | -4 | 28 | 32 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 4 |
| 45+ | 31 | 35 | 25 | 4 | 34 | 28 | 26 | 12 | -6 | 28 | 32 | 8 | 15 | 5 | -4 |
| 55+ | 39 | 31 | 22 | -8 | 38 | 28 | 23 | 12 | -10 | 34 | 27 | 10 | 16 | 4 | -7 |
| 65+ | 41 | 35 | 18 | -6 | 44 | 31 | 16 | 9 | -13 | 45 | 21 | 10 | 16 | 2 | -24 |
| AB | 37 | 28 | 29 | -9 | 39 | 26 | 29 | 7 | -13 | 39 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 4 | -9 |
| C1 | 37 | 32 | 23 | -5 | 39 | 28 | 24 | 9 | -11 | 33 | 30 | 9 | 13 | 6 | -3 |
| C2 | 33 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 37 | 29 | 22 | 12 | -8 | 30 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 0 |
| DE | 25 | 48 | 18 | 23 | 31 | 40 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 37 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 15 |
Sources:
2005 2010 2015
Kavannagh and Butler Kavannagh and Cowley Ashcroft Post-election polls
(Various mori) Ipsos/mori
Goldblog 