Interesting initial statistics on voting behaviour at the 2015 General Election

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May 18, 2015 by Paul Goldsmith

Using Lord Ashcroft’s post-election polling and comparing with previous voting statistics gives us some interesting findings.

Summary 

  • Conservatives’ previously large lead amongst women has now gone
  • Labour have improved their vote share amongst young people 18-24 – despite the Green vote
  • This is the same with 25+, where a Conservative lead has turned into a Labour lead
  • But there was a massive loss of the elderly vote for Labour, many to UKIP, and they turnout in greater numbers
  • Labour’s vote share improved amongst the middle classes
  • It was no worse amongst C1 and C2
  • It was also much improved amongst the very poor
2005 2010 2015
CON LAB LD Lab lead CON LAB LD OTH Lab lead CON LAB LD UKIP G Lab lead
M 34 34 22 0 38 28 22 -10 32 29 9 15 5 -3
W 32 38 23 6 36 31 26   4 32 32 9 12 6 0
18+ 28 38 26 10 30 31 30 9 2 24 41 9 7 10 17
25+ 25 38 27 13 35 30 29 7 -4 26 36 9 12 9 10
35+ 27 41 23 14 34 31 26 9 -4 28 32 10 15 7 4
45+ 31 35 25 4 34 28 26 12 -6 28 32 8 15 5 -4
55+ 39 31 22 -8 38 28 23 12 -10 34 27 10 16 4 -7
65+ 41 35 18 -6 44 31 16 9 -13 45 21 10 16 2 -24
AB 37 28 29 -9 39 26 29 7 -13 39 30 7 20 4 -9
C1 37 32 23 -5 39 28 24 9 -11 33 30 9 13 6 -3
C2 33 40 19 7 37 29 22 12 -8 30 30 7 20 5 0
DE 25 48 18 23 31 40 17 12 10 22 37 6 20 5 15

Sources:

2005                                             2010                                     2015

Kavannagh and Butler              Kavannagh and Cowley       Ashcroft Post-election polls

(Various mori)                            Ipsos/mori

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